Key points:
- Bitcoin and crypto markets stalled despite positive inflation data thanks to the US keeping tariffs on China, analysis says.
- $100,000 and the 2025 yearly open are key support levels going forward.
- Major ask liquidity remains stacked on exchange order books up to the $120,000 mark.
Bitcoin needs to avoid wicks below $100,000 as markets grapple with the US-China trade deal.
New analysis from Keith Alan, co-founder of trading resource Material Indicators, also puts the 2025 yearly open as a “line in the sand” for Bitcoin bulls.
Bitcoin analyst: 55% tariff “isn’t going to feel good”
Bitcoin continues to consolidate immediately below all-time highs as crypto and risk-asset traders evaluate the implications of the US-China trade deal.
After initially rallying, Bitcoin pulled back as it emerged that the deal involved tariffs of 55% on Chinese imports, an even higher rate than at present.
For Alan, this is a clear potential driver of short-term BTC price action, more so than the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report released on Wednesday.
“Despite having a relatively positive economic report, and news that we almost have a trade deal with China, TradFi and Crypto Markets were slightly down on Wednesday,” he summarized on X.
“I'm speculating that people aren't thrilled with the fact that U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods jumped to 55% from the 30% that was set for the negotiating period. 55% is going to be felt throughout every aspect of the U.S. economy and it isn't going to feel good.”
Reviewing order book liquidity, Alan suggested that the overall picture remained conducive to the Bitcoin bull case.
“TLDR: When in doubt, zoom out,” another X post summarized alongside data from one of Material Indicators’ proprietary trading tools.
“A 1 year view of order book and order flow data in FireCharts shows heavy concentrations of BTC ask liquidity stacked from $111k up to $120k and disproportionately less bid liquidity below it.”
